Who’s Crying Now?

Alec J. Pacella

Few innovations have had more of an impact on investment analysis than spreadsheet software. Dominated by Microsoft Excel for the last 25 years, this sector is currently used by an estimated 78% of U.S. businesses. While most know how to quickly copy, sum, drag and format, fewer may know about the real power of this software – a whole host of integrated functions and formulas.

I ran into a long-time reader a few weeks ago, who remarked on covering some ‘soft content’ during recent columns. As a result, this month we are going back to school to discuss some useful but perhaps little-known functions to help get your Excel game in gear.

PV

Present value is a foundational concept and represents a value today for a series of cash flows to be received in the future at a specific discount rate. This concept has tremendous value to a real estate investor, as it allows us to determine what this series of cash flows is worth today. The formula is =PV(discount rate, time periods, periodic payments, future value).

FV

Future value is also useful and is the exact opposite of present value. It rep- resents that value at some point in the future of a present lump sum value and/or a series of periodic payments, collectively compounded at a given compounding rate to a specific point in the future. The formula is =FV(compounding rate, time periods, periodic payment, present value).

NPV

We have discussed the concept of net present value several times over the years in these very pages. A kissing cousin to IRR, this concept adds a slight twist by discounting all future cash flows back at a target discount rate and nets the sum against the initial investment. The initial investment can be entered as zero, which makes this formula a very common way to determine the current value of an investment at a given discount rate. The formula is =NPV(target discount rate, series of periodic cash flows).

XNPV

The addition of the ‘x’ allows for more specific control over the timing of cash flows. While NPV considers annual periodic cash flows, XNPV can distinguish between monthly, quarterly, semi-annual or annual periods, all within the same range of cash flows. The formula is =XNPV(target discount rate, series of periodic cash flows, range of associated dates).

IRR

Enter NPV’s kissing cousin. Most of us think of IRR as the rate of return that each dollar earns in an investment while it’s invested. But there is an alternative definition – IRR determines the exact rate at which all future cash flows dis- counted back to the present and netted against the initial investment equals zero. As a result, the IRR of an investment will be the same as NPV’s target discount rate when NPV equals zero. IRR is a very important metric to many investors but thankfully, the formula is simple: =IRR(series of periodic cash flows).

XIRR

Similar to NPV, the addition of the ‘x’ allows for more control over timing. While IRR is an annual measure, XIRR can accurately calculate a mixture of time periods, including monthly, quarterly, semi-annually or annually. The formula is =XIRR(series of periodic cash flows, range of associated dates)

PMT

Back in the day, any real estate professional worth their salt would have a little red covered book called the “Ellwood Tables for Real Estate Appraising and Financing” right by their side. Filled with page after page of tables, it allowed the reader to quickly figure out the annual loan payment at a variety of nominal interest rates and amortization periods. This function in Excel makes the process a snap: =PMT(nominal interest rate, amortization period, initial loan amount). One word of caution – most loans are amortized and paid on a monthly basis so be sure that the nominal interest rate and amortization period both reflect this.

FV to find loan balance

Once you determine the loan payment, you can easily find the loan balance at any point during the life of that loan. The only time the future value (FV) will be zero is once the final payment is made and the loan is fully amortized. The formula is =FV(nominal interest rate, specific period for loan balance, periodic loan payment, original loan amount). Two input items of note. First, be sure that the interest rate, specific period and periodic loan payment all reflect months if using monthly compounding. And second, be sure to enter the periodic payment as a negative if the original loan amount is entered in as a positive.

IPMT

Sticking with the loan theme, we know that the concept of classic loan amortization results in a portion of each periodic payment representing interest and a portion representing principal, which in turn reduces the outstanding loan balance. While both portions are important, we can use the IPMT function to determine exactly how much interest is associated with a particular periodic payment. The formula is =IPMT(nominal interest rate, specific payment period for interest component, total amortization period, original loan amount). Once again, be sure that all of the components represent months if using monthly compounding.

MIRR

While IRR is a very useful tool, it has limitations related to its treatment of both negative and positive cash flows that the primary investment produce. Diving into the nuances associated with the treatment of negative cash flows can be the subject of an entire column (spoiler alert) so for now, just set that one aside. As for positive cash flows, IRR makes no assumption for cash flows that come out of an investment. The only thing that IRR cares about money coming out of a deal is that it is no longer in that deal. That’s an issue because, as an investor, I can re-invest that money into another investment. A concept known as Modified Internal Rate of Return (or MIRR) addresses this limitation by introducing consideration of a secondary investment, and associated reinvestment rate, for any positive cash flows that are generated by the primary investment. The formula is =MIRR(series of cash flows, safe rate applied to negative cash flows, reinvestment rate applied to positive cash flows).

While Excel has certainly changed the landscape of accounting and financial analysis, it wasn’t the pioneer. If you have a long enough memory, you may be thinking about Lotus 1-2-3, which was introduced in 1983. But four years prior to that was the OG – VisiCalc was the first spreadsheet software developed for personal computers in 1979. It is rumored that when co-founder Dan Bricklin, then a student at Harvard, showed his creation to a group of accountants, they sat in stunned belief at the ease by which simply changing a number would automatically update the sum total. And then, one of them started to cry. We certainly have come a long way, baby.

Financial Strategies by Alec J. Pacella, for October 2022 Properties Magazine.

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Strong recovery on the cards for US, Europe hospitality

Over the last few years, the hospitality industry has taken some hard hits. And for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) professionals focusing on the sector, 2020 may well have felt like a trial by fire. When we looked at the industry last year, however, things were starting to look up, with at least some evidence of a mounting recovery.

The good news in 2022 is that, as business travel and tourism resume, the hospitality sector seems set to hit highs we haven’t seen since before the pandemic.

RevPAR revving up

According to a recent article by hospitality analysts STR, the RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) for U.S. hotels is set to surpass levels seen in 2019. RevPAR is an important metric for the industry and is used by owners to calculate hotel performance. The new predictions suggest a $6 increase in RevPAR compared to 2019.

It’s worth noting though that the gains fall short when adjusted for inflation, and it’s likely the industry will only achieve full recovery in 2024. That said, the sentiment in the hospitality sector still seems to be bullish, especially on the back of average daily occupancy rates of nearly 60% in May this year.

Back in Business

One factor that seems to be fueling the gains is an uptick in business travel. STR president Amanda Hite states: “…right now, we are forecasting demand to reach historic levels in 2023 as business travel recovery has ramped up and joined the incredible demand from the leisure sector.”

The New York Times adds that domestic business travel in particular is on the increase, with cities like Las Vegas leading the pack in terms of the number of trade shows and events scheduled in 2022.

While the recovery for international travel seems to be slower, they note that business trips to Europe are leading recuperation on that front.

The European connection

The hospitality situation in Europe is certainly heating up, with many top destinations reporting strong gains in the last few months.

In Paris, for example, the hotel market is expected to make an early recovery, buoyed by tourism and international events like the Rugby World Cup and Olympic Games. Meanwhile Berlin hotels are also reporting hikes in RevPAR and occupancy, and Portugal is anticipating pre-pandemic levels of tourism in 2023.

A hopeful outlook

Taken together, these latest reports suggest that there may be some welcome relief for the hospitality sector as travel, both for business and pleasure, resumes. Going into 2023 and 2024, we may see a level of robust recovery that means the industry can finally put the hard times of the last few years behind it.

SOCIAL: For those working in hospitality real estate, how are the numbers stacking up in your area? And how do you anticipate the trend developing through the rest of 2022?

Another lender announces slow down for CRE credit

Credit for commercial real estate (CRE) looks to be entering a crunch state in the second half of 2022 as a number of the big lenders announced in July that they were pulling back in that sphere.

The latest to make such an announcement are Signature Bank and M&T Bank. The former said it “expected to cut back on lending for multifamily and other commercial real estate assets”, and the latter laid the blame squarely at the feet of higher interest rates in its decision to make “fewer CRE loans this year”.

Construction slump

M&T’s CRE loan balances decline by 2%, or $830m in Q2 2022, as reported by the Real Deal, who extracted key takeaways from an earnings call hosted by M&T chief financial officer Darren King. King reportedly specified that construction loans declined, alongside a decline in completed projects and new developments coming online.

Interest rates and inflation

King said the rates moves were “affecting cap rates and asset values” and that they were “not seeing the turnover in properties like you might have under normal circumstances. And that will affect the pace of decline and our growth in permanent CRE.”

According to BisNow reporting, “Interest rates, raised in an attempt to beat back record-high inflation, have contributed to a drop in investment volume from the highs of 2021 and early 2022, slowing CRE deal volume”.

Global pressures

In broad term, these economic conditions are seen at varying rates around the world right now. As S&P’s recent update explains: “Economic growth is slowing. Interest rates remain stubbornly high. Estimates of the risk of recession or even stagflation creep upward and questions persist on whether central banks are under- or over-reacting in pursuit of monetary normalization.”

Additionally, on the residential side, their PMI research indicates “a steep contraction in demand for real estate amid tightening financial cost of living”.

Social: How is the rising cost of living playing out in your market?

CRE 2022: Positive metrics for the first six months

A new report out from JP Morgan Chase provides an interesting mid-year review for commercial real estate (CRE), showing positivity in the first half of 2022, despite the various headwinds the industry faces.

“Despite rising interest rates—with the potential for more hikes in the coming months—commercial real estate has seen success in 2022,” writes Al Brooks, Head of Commercial Real Estate, Commercial Banking at JPMorgan Chase.

Giving retail a boost
Even the beleaguered retail space has some standouts, according to JPMorgan. The report highlights a handful of factors that have bolstered strip malls in highly populated residential areas, underpinned by the likes of “grocery stores, fast-casual restaurants, and other retailers offering in-person services”, reads MPAMag’s coverage of the findings.

“JPMorgan observed that walk-in MRIs, testing clinics, and other non-traditional tenants may fill more shopping centers as retail evolves and adapts,” they add.

Class B and C malls, however, “continue to struggle” and the report authors call them “prime candidates for adaptive reuse” – into affordable housing and even industrial use, like fulfillment centers.

Industrial still booming
Given the huge demand for industrial space – a trend that continues unabated – the report posits that we may start to see this category of property maturing in interesting ways. This could include adding the kinds of facilities and amenities which we associate with offices, such as gyms, complimentary snacks, nursing rooms, and so on.

This would fit with the evolution towards “multiple business purposes” within industrial sites, “such as a shipment center with offices or a showroom”, according to the report authors.

Casting forward
As for the next six months, the report has a tone of tentative positivity, writing: “Multifamily and industrial properties have thrived in 2022. With healthy balance sheets, consumer demand could bolster retail, multifamily and industrial asset classes.”

But, they say, they’re keeping an eye on how “the country navigates hybrid work” and “on interest rate hikes, supply chain issues and geopolitical events, as well as ongoing relationships between public and private entities in affordable housing”. 

For more information, and a link to the webinar replay, click here.

Social: What was the state of CRE in the first six months of 2022 in your region?

FINANCIAL STRATEGIES: Get Smart

Alec J. Pacella

Growing up in a small town in western Pennsylvania meant that I wasn’t necessarily on the cutting edge of technology. Any new electronics took months if not years to trickle down and even then would usually mean a trip to bigger cities such as Youngstown or Pittsburgh to track down. A great example is the LED watch. It was initially developed in 1971 and became widely available by the mid-1970s. But it wasn’t until Darrell Knight showed up sporting one on his wrist right after Christmas break of 1978 that I actually saw one, live and in person.

The use of technology in real estate seems to follow a similar path, with innovations taking months, if not years, to be integrated into the industry. This month, we are going to discuss some ways, specifically in the area of smart buildings, that technology has finally begun to make a big impact.

Air quality

While certain sectors, such as medical and clean manufacturing, have been driving advances in clean air filtration and monitoring, the advent of COVID- 19 has placed a spotlight on this topic. The result is a whole ecosystem of products and strategies known as IAQ, or indoor air quality. The most common IAQ technologies revolve around higher-efficiency filters. Humidification and dehumidification systems have also become much more advanced, helping to control dust and mold while maintaining comfort. More advanced systems assist with heat and energy recovery ventilators to offset the increasingly “air- tight” nature of modern construction, as well as UV purifiers to neutralize airborne bacteria and viruses.

Voice-and touch-activated tech

Again, this type of technology received a huge boost in the wake of COVID-19. If you have ever used systems such as Alexa, Siri or Google, you are already well aware of the power and convenience voice-activation can offer. And while touch-activated technologies have been around for decades, the overwhelming popularity of smartphones and apps are leading to more advanced applications. In the commercial real estate sector, it’s no surprise that the hotel sector has taken the lead implementing this type of technology, ranging from speaking to control lights, temperature and entertainment to accessing the room and ordering room service from your smartphone. And don’t look now but many larger commercial property owners are beginning to integrate these same technologies, offering them to their tenants as a standard building amenity.

Smart parking

This may seem like something reserved for only big cities such as New York, Chicago and Los Angeles.

In the commercial real estate sector, it’s no surprise that the hotel sector has taken the lead implementing [voice activation] technology, ranging from speaking to control lights, temperature and entertainment to accessing the room and ordering room service from your smartphone.

And these cities certainly began adopting technologies years ago, with the advent of apps such as SpotHero and ParkWhiz, which allow parking operators to maxi- mize their occupancy through digital notification, reservation and even sub- leasing processes. But if you’ve ever parked in the decks at Hopkins airport, you’ve probably seen another, even sim- pler example that uses a small green or red light above each space, allowing potential parkers to quickly differentiate vacant spots from occupied spots

Energy efficient systems

This can fall into two categories:

1) systems that optimize energy via continual monitoring and 2) clean or renewable energy features. The former is the real heavyweight when it comes to smart building design and is mainly based on the autonomic cycle of data analysis tasks (ACODAT) concept. Basically, the HVAC systems have a central processor that continually monitors usage, time of day, outside air temperature, building occupancy and a host of other factors to not only be reactive in running the HVAC system at peak efficiency but also be predictive by learning patterns over days, weeks and months. The latter includes a host of advances in technologies such as heat pumps and geothermal systems as well as solar- and wind-enabled sources.

The most common acknowledgement of building technology is a certification known as Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED), through the U.S. Green Building Council. A similar certification is known as the Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Methodology (BREEAM) rating. Both of these involve achieving points related to set standards that address carbon, energy, water, waste, transportation, materials, health and indoor environmental quality. There are many examples of LEED-certified buildings in Northeast Ohio, including the Maltz Performing Arts Center at Case Western Reserve University, UH Avon Health Center and the Children’s Museum of Cleveland, among hundreds of others.

And there have been many noteworthy projects worldwide, including the following high-achieving facilities.

Oakland City Center (Oakland, CA)

Developed by Siemens, the build- ing contains a variety of dynamic and artificial intelligence to power its operation. A noteworthy feature is an advanced air volume system that can put the entire building into “green mode,” which is a setting that uses aggregated historical data to optimize humidity, air pressure and temperature. It also has a decontamination mode that raises the temperature to acceler- ate the decay of airborne virus particles.

Cisco Systems Canada HQ (Toronto)

This was the first building in Toronto to be rated as a LEED Core and Shell Platinum building. It links up Cisco’s business operations and helps to power Cisco’s Internet of Everything (IoE) while also streamlining all building data into a single network.

Mitie (London)

Arguably the most striking example of the IoE in smart buildings, the Mitie building uses automated alarms, remote systems management, machine learn- ing and data analytics to achieve a 95% accuracy rate for predictive main- tenance calls and a 3% improvement of energy usage by clients.

By the time we hit high school, Darrell Knight’s simple, push-button, red-hued LED watch had been eclipsed by a series of LCD watches that integrated features like alarms (with music, no less), stop watches and the ability to track multiple time zones. And while today’s smart buildings have shown great advances over the last two decades, the pace of technology promises to have an even greater impact on this sector.

Article from September 2022 Properties Magazine