Credit for commercial real estate (CRE) looks to be entering a crunch state in the second half of 2022 as a number of the big lenders announced in July that they were pulling back in that sphere.
The latest to make such an announcement are Signature Bank and M&T Bank. The former said it “expected to cut back on lending for multifamily and other commercial real estate assets”, and the latter laid the blame squarely at the feet of higher interest rates in its decision to make “fewer CRE loans this year”.
M&T’s CRE loan balances decline by 2%, or $830m in Q2 2022, as reported by the Real Deal, who extracted key takeaways from an earnings call hosted by M&T chief financial officer Darren King. King reportedly specified that construction loans declined, alongside a decline in completed projects and new developments coming online.
Interest rates and inflation
King said the rates moves were “affecting cap rates and asset values” and that they were “not seeing the turnover in properties like you might have under normal circumstances. And that will affect the pace of decline and our growth in permanent CRE.”
According to BisNow reporting, “Interest rates, raised in an attempt to beat back record-high inflation, have contributed to a drop in investment volume from the highs of 2021 and early 2022, slowing CRE deal volume”.
In broad term, these economic conditions are seen at varying rates around the world right now. As S&P’s recent update explains: “Economic growth is slowing. Interest rates remain stubbornly high. Estimates of the risk of recession or even stagflation creep upward and questions persist on whether central banks are under- or over-reacting in pursuit of monetary normalization.”
Additionally, on the residential side, their PMI research indicates “a steep contraction in demand for real estate amid tightening financial cost of living”.
Social: How is the rising cost of living playing out in your market?
A new report out from JP Morgan Chase provides an interesting mid-year review for commercial real estate (CRE), showing positivity in the first half of 2022, despite the various headwinds the industry faces.
“Despite rising interest rates—with the potential for more hikes in the coming months—commercial real estate has seen success in 2022,” writes Al Brooks, Head of Commercial Real Estate, Commercial Banking at JPMorgan Chase.
Giving retail a boost Even the beleaguered retail space has some standouts, according to JPMorgan. The report highlights a handful of factors that have bolstered strip malls in highly populated residential areas, underpinned by the likes of “grocery stores, fast-casual restaurants, and other retailers offering in-person services”, reads MPAMag’s coverage of the findings.
“JPMorgan observed that walk-in MRIs, testing clinics, and other non-traditional tenants may fill more shopping centers as retail evolves and adapts,” they add.
Class B and C malls, however, “continue to struggle” and the report authors call them “prime candidates for adaptive reuse” – into affordable housing and even industrial use, like fulfillment centers.
Industrial still booming Given the huge demand for industrial space – a trend that continues unabated – the report posits that we may start to see this category of property maturing in interesting ways. This could include adding the kinds of facilities and amenities which we associate with offices, such as gyms, complimentary snacks, nursing rooms, and so on.
This would fit with the evolution towards “multiple business purposes” within industrial sites, “such as a shipment center with offices or a showroom”, according to the report authors.
Casting forward As for the next six months, the report has a tone of tentative positivity, writing: “Multifamily and industrial properties have thrived in 2022. With healthy balance sheets, consumer demand could bolster retail, multifamily and industrial asset classes.”
But, they say, they’re keeping an eye on how “the country navigates hybrid work” and “on interest rate hikes, supply chain issues and geopolitical events, as well as ongoing relationships between public and private entities in affordable housing”.
For more information, and a link to the webinar replay, click here.
Social: What was the state of CRE in the first six months of 2022 in your region?
New Zealand’s city of Hamilton – or Kirikiriroa in Maori – sits on the banks of the famous Waikato River which features heavily in its sights and site. In this city known for its beautiful greenery and walks, the most popular tourist attraction is the 54-hectare Hamilton Gardens.
With a population of just under 200,000 people, Hamilton is the fourth most populous city in the country. In 2020, it was named ‘most beautiful large city in New Zealand’. The wider Hamilton Urban Area includes Ngāruawāhia, Te Awamutu, and Cambridge, which collectively cover some 110 square kilometers of land. It is also the third fastest-growing urban area.
Leading industries and outputs
Hamilton’s economic heritage is as an agricultural services hub, particularly dairy cattle, and vegetable farming, but it also has thriving business services, construction, and health and community services. Additionally, R&D is an emerging sphere, given the city’s high tertiary educated population.
Residential market factors
New Zealand has typically seen high demand and low supply for residential housing in recent years which has kept prices elevated. There are, however, some movements in the markets, and new regulations around lending coming into play that could mean fewer residential buyers would qualify and those that do could be in for “bargains” in 2022 – according to a January 2022 report from Stuff.co.nz citing Mortgage Lab chief executive Rupert Gough.
Additionally, Realestate.co.nz recently reported new house listings in November 2021 were hitting their highest level in seven years, and Stuff.co.nz added that data from Infometric showing consent and permissions for new build projects were also much increased, compared year on year.
Our Hamilton reports that the city’s “total property Capital Value (the total value of the land and any buildings on it) increased 53%, and Land Value 67% since 2018”. “On average,” the article continues, ‘Capital Values for commercial and industrial property have increased by 40% across the city”.
Insight from NAI Harcourts in the country suggests that industrial will remain “the darling of the three commercial property sectors”, but also that there is momentum in the Hamilton office market, which they characterized as coming from a “flight to quality” that was pushing local business in the central business districts to up their game.For more regional insight, contact NAI Global’s partners in Hamilton and surrounds.
I’m always pleased to see comments from loyal readers. Most of the time, these are complimentary. But as a wise Yoda once told me, “Compliments grow flowers, but criticisms grow roots.” And while one of the comments I received in response to last month’s column wasn’t a criticism, it was insightful.
The gist was a historically limited viewpoint from the lender’s perspective. The comment wasn’t wrong; prior to the concept of 365/360 loan amortization covered last month, it had been a few years since anything related to the lender’s perspective was considered. And make no mistake – lenders are a dominant part of the commercial real estate landscape. Last year, nearly $4 trillion of capital invested in commercial real estate came from lenders, as compared to $2.7 trillion of equity. Given the significant role that lenders play, this month will be a bit of a ‘two-fer’ and follow up on some basic metrics that a lender uses to determine the appropriate level of participation in an investment.
One of the most common (and easy to understand) metrics used by a lender is the loan-to-value (or LTV) ratio. This approach considers the underlying value of the real estate as compared to a ratio established by the lender. For example, the lender determines a property to have a value of $1 million and has established a 75% LTV ratio.
In this instance, the lender would be willing to provide a maximum loan of $750,000 ($1,000,000 x .75). Another metric related to LTV but less common is the leveraged ratio. It measures the amount of equity as compared to the total investment. In the example above, the leveraged ratio would be 4:1, which means that every dollar of equity equates to four dollars of total value ($1,000,000 divided by $250,000). LTV and leveraged ratio are both focused on the underlying value of the real estate, but a lender will also look at the income characteristics of the asset. A primary measure with this focus is known as the debt service coverage ratio (or DSCR), which helps to ensure the property has sufficient cash flow to make the loan payments. LTV and leveraged ratio are simple and only require one step. DSCR is a bit more involved and requires two steps. The first step is to determine the maximum annual debt service given the property’s income, as represented by net operating income (NOI) and the DCSR established by the lender.
This ensures there is not just enough but more than enough income to service the debt. Assume a property has a NOI of $80,000 and the lender establishes a DCSR of 1.25. In this instance, the maximum annual debt service would be $64,000 ($80,000 divided by 1.25). This ensures a measure of safety for the lender, as the NOI could fall by up to
Another metric that has risen in popularity over the last decade is known as debt yield, which represents the percent of NOI as compared to the original loan amount. This is a helpful measure of risk for a lender as it illustrates the yield that a lender would realize if they were to come into a direct ownership position due to a default by the borrower. It is also a valuable metric as it helps to ensure the loan amount is not inflated by low cap rates, low interest rates or a long amortization period. Calculating this is straight-for- ward: dividing NOI by the loan amount. Again, using our example and assuming a $750,000 loan, the debt yield would be $80,000 divided by $750,000 = 9.375%.
The last metric I would like to discuss is also one that has been around the longest the venerable loan constant. It measures the annual debt service, including principal and interest, as compared to the original loan amount. Using our example and again assuming a $750,000 loan, the loan constant would be $61,910 divided by $750,000 = 8.255%. At the risk of sounding like the kid that had to walk to school and back uphill and in two feet of snow, a loan constant was used to calculate loan payments in the days before financial calculators. The cutting-edge real estate tool back then was a little book with a red cover entitled “The Ellwood Tables.” It was filled with pages upon pages of tables with eight-digit numbers.
At the risk of sounding like the kid that had to walk to school and backup hill and in two feet of snow, a loan constant was used to calculate loan payments in the days before financial calculators. The cutting- edge real estate tool back then was a little book with a red cover entitled “The Ellwood Tables.”
To use it, you would match up the columns for the lender’s nominal interest rate and loan amortization period. Once the corresponding eight-digit number was found, you multiplied it by the initial loan amount and, shazam, the annual debt service would be known. In the example above, matching up the column for a 20-year loan amortization with the row for 5.5% interest would result in a factor of .08254667.
Upon reviewing a sampling of past articles, the topics associated with mortgages and the debt market are indeed far and few between. And if it wasn’t for some- one taking the time to point this out, this month’s article would likely have been centered around internal rate of return, net present value or cap rates.
A recent report – released in late May 2022 – shows the industrial commercial real estate (CRE) boom is far from over, even when the “headwinds” are accounted for.
The May 2022 Matrix Industrial Report, from Yardi Matrix, says that although the “economy hit a rough patch in the first quarter due to inflationary pressures and rising energy prices, […] demand for industrial space continues to be robust”.
The continued presence of market fundamentals like increased consumer spending and job growth are adding to the sense of resilience seen from the sector, which has made huge strides since the dawn of Covid-19 kicked online shopping and fulfilment into particularly high gear.
CRE in general and the industrial CRE sector in particular do face a range of economic pressures as we look to the second half of the year. Slower economic growth in the first quarter, supply chain issues, and “persistent inflationary pressures” are not insignificant depressive factors, but the drivers of demand are not going anywhere either.
The boost factors, on the other hand, include “healthy consumer spending”, and “the need to bring the nation’s stock up to snuff to support modern logistics”.
Additionally, occupancy across most US metros remains high and “rents are growing well above historical levels around the country,” according to the report. Rental averages across the US have increased by 440 basis points year-on-year.
Industrial building supply chain
The report calls the new supply chain for industrial building “extraordinarily robust”, but, as Commercial Property Executive reporting on the report highlights, “[a]lthough the under-construction pipeline is ballooning, experts see the industrial market as severely undersupplied”.
This assessment, from Prologis, draws from several different data sources including the Purchasing Managers Index, retail sales data, and job growth statistics, to posit that the US has “16 months of available industrial inventory”.
Reportedly, over 640 million square feet of industrial space was under construction nationwide at the end of April. Including planned projects takes the pipeline to 650 million square feet.
Far from being a US-only trend, demand for industrial is high among most developed economies – or almost anywhere with a strong consumer base demanding more and quicker online shopping and delivery.
As this Financial Times article shows, that’s the case even where Amazon space acquisition is slowing: “There has been record demand for UK warehouses in the past two years,” they write, “with take-up north of 50 [million] square feet compared with a pre-pandemic average of 32 [million square feet]”.
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