A recent report – released in late May 2022 – shows the industrial commercial real estate (CRE) boom is far from over, even when the “headwinds” are accounted for.
The May 2022 Matrix Industrial Report, from Yardi Matrix, says that although the “economy hit a rough patch in the first quarter due to inflationary pressures and rising energy prices, […] demand for industrial space continues to be robust”.
The continued presence of market fundamentals like increased consumer spending and job growth are adding to the sense of resilience seen from the sector, which has made huge strides since the dawn of Covid-19 kicked online shopping and fulfilment into particularly high gear.
CRE in general and the industrial CRE sector in particular do face a range of economic pressures as we look to the second half of the year. Slower economic growth in the first quarter, supply chain issues, and “persistent inflationary pressures” are not insignificant depressive factors, but the drivers of demand are not going anywhere either.
The boost factors, on the other hand, include “healthy consumer spending”, and “the need to bring the nation’s stock up to snuff to support modern logistics”.
Additionally, occupancy across most US metros remains high and “rents are growing well above historical levels around the country,” according to the report. Rental averages across the US have increased by 440 basis points year-on-year.
Industrial building supply chain
The report calls the new supply chain for industrial building “extraordinarily robust”, but, as Commercial Property Executive reporting on the report highlights, “[a]lthough the under-construction pipeline is ballooning, experts see the industrial market as severely undersupplied”.
This assessment, from Prologis, draws from several different data sources including the Purchasing Managers Index, retail sales data, and job growth statistics, to posit that the US has “16 months of available industrial inventory”.
Reportedly, over 640 million square feet of industrial space was under construction nationwide at the end of April. Including planned projects takes the pipeline to 650 million square feet.
Far from being a US-only trend, demand for industrial is high among most developed economies – or almost anywhere with a strong consumer base demanding more and quicker online shopping and delivery.
As this Financial Times article shows, that’s the case even where Amazon space acquisition is slowing: “There has been record demand for UK warehouses in the past two years,” they write, “with take-up north of 50 [million] square feet compared with a pre-pandemic average of 32 [million square feet]”.
Social: Are you operating in a well-supplied industrial CRE market, or are people scrambling to find space? Tell us where in the world you are, and what the “pulse of industrial” is in your region?
Foreclosures in the US were up in the first quarter of 2022 – setting what the data provider calls a “post pandemic high”. The data provider in this case is Attom, who specialize in real estate and property data – including tax, mortgage, deed, risk and other information for “over 155 million properties” country-wide.
It must be noted however that this level of foreclosure activity is still considerably better than the highs seen in 2020, before government intervention (more below).
A tale of two months
Attom’s Q1 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report – released in April 2022 – shows a total of 78 271 properties filed for foreclosure in the first quarter of 2022. This is, they write, “up 39% from the previous quarter and up 132% from a year ago”.
Additionally, in March 2022 alone, the data indicates over 33 000 US property foreclosure filings – an increase of 29% from the prior month, and 181% compared to March 2021.
A mere month later, however, in the month-to-month reporting from the same provider (April 2022, released in mid-May), showed “a total of 30,674 properties with foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions”. This was down 8% from March, but up 160% from April 2021.
Questioning the headline
As covered before on this blog, it is important to assess data and market reports like this one as pieces of a larger picture – viewed in context of time and other indexes. It is also worth noting that there is typically a delay between economic “crunch”, consumers feeling the pressure, and market movements showing the effects of said pressure.
The above caveats notwithstanding, the trend line this report highlights is concerning for investors who watch the residential market, and commercial brokers whose specialty/sectors are affected by residential, such as multi-family.
Specifically, the data point that March 2022 was “the 11th consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in U.S. foreclosure activity”, is not a positive direction for this metric.
Post-moratorium balancingWriting about the Q1 2022 “record”, a spokesperson for Attom explained that this foreclosure activity is “gradually return[ing] to normal levels since the expiration of the government’s moratorium” and the CFPB’s enhanced mortgage servicing guidelines”.
What economic and commercial property data do you keep a close eye on?
In a recent NAI article, we looked at the advent of the metaverse[SR1] and what this new tech might mean for commercial real estate (CRE). Though we concluded that the answer to how the metaverse might impact the real world remains uncertain, since then, there have been some interesting virtual developments.
To be clear, the “mortgages” in this case are funded entirely by TerraZero itself, rather than an external financial institution, but employ a system of down payment and instalments, much like the real thing. The first one was issued for a piece of land on a platform called Decentraland, where users can own, and sell, virtual assets. And as strange as this all sounds from a real estate perspective, there have recently been several big players setting up shop in the virtual world.
Perhaps the biggest, from a credibility point of view, is global financial leaders JPMorgan who recently launched a “virtual bank”, though at the moment it’s only being used for marketing purposes. In tandem with the purchase, JPMorgan issued a report, where they discuss their expectations for the metaverse’s development, saying:
“The success of building and scaling in the metaverse is dependent on having a robust and flexible financial ecosystem that will allow users to seamlessly connect between the physical and virtual worlds.”
They added that, in just the last six months of 2021, the average price for a virtual plot of land jumped from $6,000 to $12,000.
Despite this apparent endorsement from one of the world’s leading financiers, there are still plenty of metaverse critics urging caution. One of the main points raised is that, unlike physical real estate, metaverse purchases can’t satisfy both property value fundamentals: namely scarcity and location.
Or as Louis Rosenberg, CEO of Unanimous AI and a veteran Augmented Reality (AR) developer, puts it:
“We don’t even know which platforms are [going to] be popular, let alone which locations… so it’s like somebody buying a piece of land anywhere in America and hoping that it becomes San Francisco or New York.”
For many companies though, hedging bets is taking the form of securing their own piece of the virtual pie. The Wall Street Journal reports that accounting firms PricewaterhouseCoopers and Prager Metis have also recently snapped up virtual sites, with the latter spending $35,000 on its purchase of a virtual HQ.
Is the metaverse here to stay?
Though it’s still early days, and impossible to say how the virtual property trend might play out, the recent developments in the space suggest it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on. At the very least, the metaverse poses an interesting proposition, and one a lot of people seem to be willing to speculate on.
SOCIAL: Do you think there’s a future for metaverse property? And if so, how do you see it unfolding?
One of my favorite types of cuisine is Thai food. I love the variety, flavors and especially the spiciness. Like many, I have my favorite go-to location but was recently in Scottsdale, came across a Thai restaurant and had to give it a try.
While the curry dish that I ordered was fantastic, I made a classic blunder that rendered it almost inedible. With Thai food, it’s common to be able to select a specific spice level, typically expressed as a range from one to 10. At my Lakewood go-to, I always chose a four, which hits me just right. And of course, I did the same thing at this Scottsdale establishment – after all, a four is a four is a four, right? After almost having my eyeballs melt, I was quickly reminded of the danger of assumptions and how a four in Lakewood, Ohio can mean something very different as compared to a four in Scottsdale, Arizona. I know what you are thinking right about now; how is Pacella ever going to tie red curry to real estate? And by now, you likely know the response – read on! The next day on that Scottsdale trip, I met with a developer that was building a flex-warehouse project. The discussion soon settled on economics and this developer quoted a figure that was preceded with the phrase “modified gross.” I immediately hit the brakes on the conversation, as the memory of my scorched tonsils was still very fresh. I needed to understand exactly what the developer’s definition of modified gross was, as this is one of those terms that can mean dramatically different things to different people. This month, we are going to discuss the terminology used to describe the most common lease structures. Along the way, I will point out specific items to be aware of and components that can vary. Leases generally fall into two camps: net and gross. The term “net” is an indication that, in addition to rent, the tenant is also responsible for a portion of the related occupancy expenses such as real estate taxes, insurance, common area maintenance, repairs, etc. The term “gross” is an indication that the rent includes landlord contributions to at least some portion of occupancy expenses.
The following is a hierarchy of lease types, ranging from the types with the greatest tenant responsibilities to the types with the greatest landlord responsibilities.
Absolute net lease This lease structure requires the tenant to pay for any costs related to the premises, including real estate taxes, property insurance, repairs, maintenance, utilities, etc. It also requires tenant to pay for large-scale items such as a roof replacement or new HVAC unit or even rebuilding the structure should it be damaged or destroyed. The best example of this type of lease is a ground lease, where a tenant pays rent associated with the underlying ground and is also responsible for all other types of occupancy cost, including constructing, maintaining, repairing and replacement of any improvements. This type of lease can also be referred to as a bond lease and is most often seen in single-tenant retail properties, especially restaurants.
The term “net” is an indication that, in addition to rent, the tenant is also responsible for a portion of the related occupancy expenses…. The term “gross” is an indication that the rent includes landlord contributions to at least some portion of occupancy expenses.
Triple net lease This is by far the most widely used lease term and, like the term “cap rate,” it is often thrown around with reckless abandon. While some may assume this type of lease to result in the tenant paying for everything, that’s not usually the case. Let’s talk about what the tenant does pay for – in addition to rent, the three “nets” are real estate taxes, insurance and common area maintenance. These can be paid either directly (the tenant contracts for and pays the snow plowing expense) or indirectly (the landlord contracts for and pays the snow plowing expense and then sends a bill to the tenant for reimbursement). Now let’s talk about what the tenant does not pay for. Top of the list is replacement of major items, such as roof, mechanicals, structure or parking lot. And some gray can creep into this, as the lines between maintenance and replacement can be blurry. For example, an HVAC unit may need the belts replaced and a control unit swapped out. Would that be considered a repair (and thus an expense borne by the tenant) or a replacement (and thus an expense borne by the landlord). Another item is rebuilding expense. Suppose part of the property’s façade is damaged due to high winds – is this the tenant’s responsibility to repair or the landlords? While a well- constructed lease document will make situations like these clearer, one cannot simply rely on the term “triple net” as a catch-all. This type of lease is most often seen among multi-tenant retail properties, as well as single-tenant retail, industrial and office properties.
Modified gross lease If ever there was a catch-all term, this would be it. Also known as a double net or a hybrid lease, this structure connotes that some of the expense responsibility falls on the tenant and some falls on the landlord. Unfortunately, that’s as clear as things get. Sometimes, it means that the landlord pays for insurance and common area maintenance and the tenant pays for real estate taxes. Other times, it can mean that the landlord pays for real estate taxes and the tenant pays for insurance and common area maintenance. And still other times, it may mean that the landlord pays for maintenance and real estate.
Full service gross lease typically implies that the tenant pays for all operating expenses, such as real estate taxes, insurance, repairs and maintenance of the grounds and building, etc. up to a set threshold. Future increases in these collective expenses that exceed the threshold are the responsibility of the tenant.
Full-service gross lease
This is a very common structure in multi-tenant office properties in our market. It typically implies that the tenant pays for all operating expenses, such as real estate taxes, insurance, repairs and maintenance of the grounds and building, etc. up to a set threshold. Future increases in these collective expenses that exceed the threshold are the responsibility of the tenant. The tenant is also responsible for electricity usage within their premises, sometimes referred to as “lights and plugs.” But even this common structure has some pitfalls. One is janitorial – sometimes the landlord contracts and pays for cleaning of the tenant’s premises and other times the tenant will be required to contract for cleaning directly. Another is electricity. As electrical usage can be directly metered to the tenant’s premises, it can be sub-metered to the tenant’s premises, or it can be fed via a master meter and then charged on a pro rata basis.
Absolute gross lease This structure is rarely seen, save for one type of tenant. And if any of you have ever been involved with a lease for the U.S. Government, you know exactly what I’m talking about. In an absolute gross lease, the landlord pays for everything for the entire term of the lease. There are no pass-throughs, escalations or separately metered utilities. The day the lease is signed, the tenant will know exactly what they will be paying each month for the entire duration of the lease. There is not a “one size fits all” lease structure and even when we hear a common term, there can still be nuances. As I was painfully reminded in Scottsdale, assuming you know something based on a commonly used term can be a sure way to get burned!
Vancouver, in British Columbia, is one of Canada’s most well-known and densely populated cities. It is positioned on the west coast, just 45km north of the border with the United States. Some 650 000 people live in the “city proper”, while the larger metropole (bearing the name “Greater Vancouver”) is home to almost 2.5 million people. Vancouver is reportedly Canada’s most cosmopolitan city, with an ethnically and linguistically diverse population.
The city is a popular destination for the film industry (nicknamed “Hollywood North”), and for tourists, as well as enjoying a reputation as a cultural hub with many galleries, museums, and theatres. With a busy port, rail network, and as a nexus for the transcontinental highway, Vancouver’s economy was built on trade, and has expanded to include film and TV, tourism, raw materials, construction, and technology. Recently digital entertainment and the green economy are also driving GDP growth.
Like most of the world, Vancouver was rocked by Covid-19, with business shutdowns and job losses. However, it was relatively more resilient than other Canadian metros. The region’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to bounce back by 6.8% in 2021, and forecast to grow by 4.1% in 2022.
By September 2021, however, the Vancouver region’s employment figures had recovered in absolute terms. The Vancouver Economic Commission says: “Some jobs have migrated sectors; retail & hospitality are still recovering, while other sectors – such as tech and construction – have gained jobs.” Employment in the Metro Vancouver area hit 101.3 in September 2021, the highest figure in the country and “finally surpassing pre-pandemic levels”.
Vancouver is the country’s most expensive residential market and the most expensive place to live, which means that while it enjoys high scores in quality of life metrics, it has priced a lot of younger buyers out of the market. It enjoys high demand, and is considered a strong commercial real estate (CRE) market – especially for the multifamily and office sectors.
Software and data provider Altus Group says CRE investment in the Vancouver market area “saw a significant surge in the second quarter of 2021”, adding that the robust multifamily and apartment market is “fueled by the highest apartment rental rate in Canada, a shortage of rental product in the construction stage, and the anticipation of border openings to international students and immigration in the near future”.
Commercial vacancies naturally increased during the pandemic (increasing from 4.4% in late 2019 to 7.5% in late 2020) and the “return to office” expectations of 2021 was tempered by news of variants and secondary outbreak waves.
Companies seeking space in the city are increasingly looking to develop former industrial space in the east, according to Business in Vancouver, with particular interest from firms in high tech and the medical and life sciences. They are however competing for space with a powerhouse industrial segment. In Q1 and Q2 2021, investment in the industrial market in Vancouver surpassed $1.1 billion, and lease pricing reached a new record high of $15.50 per square foot.